Who will win the presidential election?

Answered at Nov 05, 2024

Presidential Election 2024: A Tight Race

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is one of the closest in history. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with neither candidate holding a significant lead in national polls or key battleground states. This report will break down the current state of the race and explore potential outcomes.

Current Polling Overview

  • National Polls: The national polling averages show Harris and Trump separated by less than a single percentage point. This indicates a highly competitive race with no clear frontrunner (NY Times).

  • Key Battleground States: The focus is on seven critical states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. These states are pivotal for securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency (NY Times).

Electoral College Scenarios

  • Harris's Path: Harris currently has 251 likely electoral votes. If she wins a few key battleground states, she could reach the necessary 270 votes. However, her lead in the "blue wall" states has diminished, making her path more challenging (NY Times).

  • Trump's Path: Trump is slightly ahead with 268 likely electoral votes. He could win if he maintains his current standing or if the polls underestimate his support, as they did in 2016 and 2020 (NY Times).

Potential Polling Errors

  • Polls Favoring Trump: If the polls are underestimating Trump, he could secure a victory with 312 electoral votes. This scenario assumes he outperforms expectations in swing states (NY Times).

  • Polls Favoring Harris: Conversely, if the polls are underestimating Harris, she could win with 308 electoral votes. This would require her to perform better than expected in key states (NY Times).

Factors Influencing the Outcome

  • Voter Turnout: The outcome will heavily depend on voter turnout. Polls that focus on "likely voters" are considered more reliable, as they better capture election-day dynamics (Economist).

  • Third-Party Influence: Third-party candidates like Stein and West could impact the race, although their support typically declines as the election approaches (FiveThirtyEight).

Conclusion

The 2024 presidential election is too close to call. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have viable paths to victory, but the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and potential polling errors. As history has shown, surprises can happen, and every vote will count in this tightly contested race.