What's the lowest BTC price you predict for 2024?

Answered at Oct 10, 2024

Based on the provided information, the lowest predicted Bitcoin (BTC) price for 2024 varies significantly among different analysts and prediction models. However, focusing on the most conservative estimates, we can identify a potential price floor for BTC in 2024.

Lowest BTC Price Predictions for 2024

John Hawkins, a senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, presents the most bearish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to $20,000 before the end of 2024. Hawkins argues that Bitcoin "remains a speculative bubble" and has failed to become an accepted means of payment as originally intended (Finder).

While this prediction represents an extreme bearish case, it's important to consider more moderate forecasts as well. The Finder panel of industry specialists predicts an average lowest price of $50,138 for Bitcoin at some point in 2024, with some panelists seeing it potentially falling as low as $20,000 (Finder).

Factors Influencing the 2024 Price Floor

Several key factors could contribute to setting a price floor for Bitcoin in 2024:

  1. Bitcoin Halving: The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024. Historically, halvings have led to increased scarcity and eventual price appreciation, which could help establish a higher price floor (Benzinga).

  2. ETF Approvals: The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in early 2024 could bring increased institutional investment, potentially supporting higher price levels (Axi).

  3. Macroeconomic Conditions: The state of the US economy and global financial markets will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's price floor. Improved economic conditions and lower interest rates could boost investor confidence in cryptocurrencies (Axi).

  4. Regulatory Environment: Increased regulatory clarity could encourage more institutional adoption, potentially establishing a higher price floor. However, stringent regulations could also lead to short-term price volatility (Axi).

Technical Analysis Perspective

From a technical analysis standpoint, CryptoCon suggests that Bitcoin's current correction from its March 2024 peak of $73,000 resembles the behavior seen in previous market cycles. This analysis indicates that Bitcoin could be nearing the end of a typical mid-cycle correction, potentially setting the stage for a new uptrend (CoinDesk).

Conservative Estimate

Taking into account the various predictions and factors, a conservative estimate for the lowest BTC price in 2024 could be around $38,537.02. This figure is based on the lower end of the range provided by BitScreener, which predicts Bitcoin could potentially fall to this level if it loses momentum (BitScreener).

While this estimate is higher than the most bearish predictions, it represents a realistic potential floor considering the various bullish factors at play in 2024, including the halving event and potential ETF approvals.

It's crucial to note that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. While these predictions provide insight into potential price movements, they should not be considered as financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.