Will Donald trump be elected president

Answered at Oct 22, 2024

Will Donald Trump Be Elected President?

The question of whether Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024 is complex and multifaceted. It involves legal challenges, political dynamics, and public opinion. Let's explore these aspects to understand the current situation.

Legal Challenges and Eligibility

Donald Trump faces significant legal hurdles. He has been indicted on multiple charges, but none specifically for insurrection, which is crucial because the Fourteenth Amendment bars individuals involved in insurrection from holding office (The Atlantic). Despite these legal challenges, there is no clear consensus on whether these charges will prevent him from running. The Supreme Court has yet to make a definitive ruling on his eligibility, leaving the decision potentially to Congress (NBC News).

Political Landscape

Democratic Strategy

Democrats are preparing for a scenario where Trump wins the presidency but they control Congress. This could lead to a constitutional crisis if they choose not to certify his victory without a Supreme Court ruling on his eligibility (The Atlantic). Their recent victory in a New York special election suggests they have a strong chance of gaining a majority in Congress.

Republican Dynamics

Trump remains a dominant figure in the Republican Party. Despite his legal issues, he is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and is polling closely with Vice President Kamala Harris (BBC). His campaign argues that legal challenges against him are unfounded and politically motivated (BBC).

Public Opinion and Polls

According to the latest forecasts, Trump has a slight edge over Harris in the Electoral College, with a 52% chance of winning compared to Harris's 48% (FiveThirtyEight). This indicates a highly competitive race, reflecting a divided electorate.

Historical Context

Trump's situation is not entirely unprecedented. In 1920, Eugene Debs ran for president from prison, although he was not a serious contender (NBC News). This historical example shows that legal issues do not automatically disqualify a candidate.

Conclusion

The possibility of Donald Trump being elected president in 2024 hinges on several factors:

  • Legal Outcomes: The Supreme Court's decision on his eligibility and the potential actions of Congress.
  • Political Strategy: How Democrats and Republicans navigate the legal and political landscape.
  • Public Opinion: Voter sentiment as reflected in polls and election results.

While Trump faces significant challenges, his strong position in the Republican Party and competitive polling suggest he remains a viable candidate. The outcome will depend on how these elements unfold in the coming months.